ChannelAdvisor Scot Wingo By Scot Wingo

Amazon’s Q1 2016 Results Preview – What Sellers Should Look For

After the market closes on Thursday, April 28th, 2016, Amazon will report their Q1 results from 2016.  comScore continues to predict that e-commerce is growing 15%, so that is the baseline we use to measure the different components of Amazon’s business.

The Amazon Q1 Results Tracker for Sellers

Here is a dashboard for the key metrics that we’ll be listening for in the call, along with where Wall St. is predicting and also where Amazon has guided to:

amazon_q1_16_dashbaord

What We Watch for First – Growth

Amazon is the largest online retailer and last year grew at a rate of about 2X e-commerce.  How long can they keep this up? Will the investments they continue to make in logistics/fulfillment, international and category expansion, and much more cause an acceleration?  The ChannelAdvisor SSS data came in at 14.4% for Q1 for Amazon.

Amazon gives us the data to be able to look at 9 different areas of growth and we’ll be watching each of these (EGM especially) closely to watch for acceleration/deceleration:

  • Overall – In Q4 15, this was 26%.
  • Domestic – In Q4 15, this 28%.
  • Non-Domestic – In Q4 15, this was 22% (ex-fx).
  • EGM – In Q4 15, this was 29%.
  • Media – In Q4 15, this was 8%.
  • Domestic EGM – In Q4 15, this was 28%.
  • Non-Domestic EGM – In Q4 15, this was 31%.
  • Domestic Media – In Q4 15, this was 12%.
  • Non-Domestic Media – In Q4 15, this was 5%.

Other Items We’re Watching

In addition to the key performance indicators in the results tracker, we’ll also be listening for:

  • Logistics, Fulfillment and Supply Chain – Amazon has made some very bold moves lately (renting planes, Dragon Boat, more FCs, etc.) and Wall St. and sellers are curious about where they are going with this.  For example, do they plan to directly compete with UPS and FedEx in the not too distant future?
  • Amazon Prime – Amazon doesn’t disclose the size of Amazon Prime and external estimates range wildly from 30-60m Prime users (Our estimate is ~45m).  Typically Amazon will include some interesting tidbits about Prime and recently the made two moves: unbundling Prime video and providing a monthly Prime fee.  We anticipate some questions on these items that may reveal some interesting aspects of the Prime program.
  • Prime Now – Prime Now (free 2hr, paid 1hr) has expanded very rapidly to over 25 metros and logistics experts believe it is on the way to another 25 for a total of 50.   Today Prime Now is only available through a separate mobile app, but Amazon announced that they will be integrating Prime Now into the main website (and maybe the main Amazon mobile app).  We’ll be listening carefully for any news around this topic.
  • Echo/Alexa – We continue to be excited (heck, I have > 4 now!) with this new platform and recently Amazon released two now form factors for Echo: the Tap and the Dot.  There maybe some new disclosures here.

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, Co-founder and Executive Chairman, ChannelAdvisor.

 

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