ChannelAdvisor Scot Wingo By Scot Wingo

eBay Q2 2015 Results Preview (from a seller’s point of view)

eBay is set to release Q2 2015 results before the market opens on Thursday 7/16. This will be eBay’s last report as a combined company as the Separation from PayPal will commence on the 17th!

Here is a dashboard that shows eBay’s guidance and Wall St. expectations.  We’ll be updating this with actuals as they are released.

Below the dashboard is a list of what we’ll be looking for.

ebay_q2_preview_dashboard

What we’ll be watching for in the release and call:

Active User Growth

As you can see from the dashboard, eBay releases a lot of data each Q, and we are frequently asked what is the most important datapoint.  In our opinion, the most important metric is active user growth as that is the most forward looking of the metrics.  In other words, active users and the growth of active users are the canary in eBay’s coal mine.  Without a fresh influx of new buyers the only way to grow is to sell them more.

This table shows the downward trend this metric has followed especially starting in Q3 2014 as eBay had their breach and Google challenges the Q before.

 

ebay_q2_active_buyer_data

If this number stops declining and picks back up, that could be an important signal that eBay has reached the bottom of those two challenges.

GMV Growth

Short-term, our ChannelAdvisor y/y SSS for eBay Q1 came in at 6.5%.  Wall St. is looking for -2.5% from the US and 7% from non-US, which would be 4.5% globally.  With e-commerce growing 15% and Amazon growing > 20% y/y the question is what is eBay doing to correct this?  In the roadshow leading up to the separation, eBay’s CEO-elect Devin Wenig said that the company could take “18-24 months to recover from the Q2 14 data breach and SEO incidents.”

 Big picture

Even though eBay is going through a rough patch and a separation, it’s important to remember that they are a > $80b marketplace.  Sellers are going to be carefully listening to any clarifications about the strategy as there has been some confusion there and some tough execution on recent initiatives like the data catalog.

This blog was written by Scot Wingo, CEO, ChannelAdvisor

 

 

 

Talk to an ExpertRequest A Call